Rotation

Okay, so we are now 1 week into the new season and we are 4-3 and in 2nd place.  To all the people who think Matt Harvey should have started today, I say two things- first Opening day has now grown into a 2 day event, and Second, Jacob DeGrom is the Rookie of the Year!  He deserved this honor.

I did not get to watch the game, something to do with work.  Talk about messed up priorities.  DeGrom treated the fanse to a terrific effort.  Since I can't talk about a game I didn't see, I thought I would discuss the rotation.  We have Bartolo Colon, DeGrom, Harvey, Jon Niese and Dillon Gee.  I think that's as deep a rotation as you are going to see in all of baseball this season.  If you think I'm sugar-coating, just look at the name of this blog and read some of my posts.  I do not sugar-coat.

There is an old adage in baseball that says when your bullpen is struggling, the problem is your starting pitching.  We have five guys who have proven they can pitch at this level.  DeGrom went 6 1/3 today, and didn't give up a run.  A quality start is defined as going 6 and giving up 3 or fewer runs.

I have written in the past that I judge a good outing as averaging 15 pitches per inning.  Harvey is going to be limited to 90 pitches per start in April.  That should get him through 6 on most starts.  With 155 games to go, we are going to cycle through another 31 times.  I can think of worse things.

Opening Day and the over/under

After waiting for what seemed an eternity, Opening day has arrived.  The main reason that it has seemed like an eternity is that I have been waiting for this opening day for years!  In 2012, I joked that the Mets slogan for that year was "Mets 2012- check back in 3 years!"  I also joked that the Mets were going to honor the 50th anniversary of their inaugural season by repeating it.  Every spring people would respond to my pessimmism by saying, "Ya never know."  To which I replied, "Actually, as a matter of fact, I do."

Last season, they finished with a 3 month stretch of average baseball, a marked improvement.  A once-in-a-generation talented ace in Matt Harvey was out, and David Wright was beaten all to pulp.  Having Wright and Harvey healthy, Lagares gaining experience, Duda gaining confidence, I felt this team would be better.

They are in a tough division.  Washington has earned its favorite status, and while the Braves no longer own us, they still lease a few shares.  The over/under for wins this season should be 88.  This should be close to the playoff threshold.

1 down, 161 to go.  Let's go Mets!

90% of success

I'm sure I got the number wrong, but I believe it was Woody Allen who talked about success being related to showing up.  Among the pitchers who've shown up are Bobby Parnell and Matt Harvey.  Harvey returns from Tommy John surgery which is now so common that returning is unremarkable, but we Bereavers will not get overconfident.  Parnell can pitch with no pressure as Jennry Mejia is penciled in at closer.

I am going to try to post more often this season.  Especially once the regular season begins.  I said that the Mets' slogan in 2012 was "Met's 2012: Check back in 3 years!"  It has now been 3 years.

Let's Go Met's!

Anticipation

When you consider the fact that the last time the football team I grew up with made it to the Super Bowl, we still did not know that the moon was not made of cheese, the end of football has always meant "2 weeks till pitchers and catchers" to me.

Many of my friends think that my disparaging remarks about the Amazins' chances in past years meant that I did not like them.  Nothing could be further from the truth!  I'm a big fan!  So, where do we stand?

We played the last 3months of the season with a record that was 2 games over .500.  The pitching staff is about to welcome back a young generational ace in Matt Harvey.  I am not going to tempt fate with the baseball gods by making any predictions, but I do believe that October baseball in Queens is not unreasonable.

Next post when camp opens- enjoy the commercials, um er, I mean the Super Bowl!

Psychologically Eliminated

The Medical Examiner will put the time of death officially at the 7th inning August 13, 2014.  The murder weapon was a fork, stuck into the Mets playoff hopes.  Forensic analysis confirmed multiple prints belonging to the Nationals who took possession of the Mets from the Braves who are losing their grip on everything these days.

I foolishly held out hope that the Mets might find a way to rally last night.  My first instinct was to post during the 7th inning stretch.  Statisticians and devout fans will tell you that it ain't over till it's over.  Well, even Yogi would call this one over.  There might be some sound and fury over the final 40 games, but it will signify nothing.

Right before the All Star Break, the Mets had a great Comeback win against the Braves.  It was a game they used to lose.  They still lose them only now they lose them to the Nats.  And when the Nats stuck that fork in them last night, it went right through the heart.  Until then, there were things to hope for.

The Mets will not catch the Nats for the East title.  They will not catch the wild card teams.  They will not even catch a .500 record.  If they were trailing a cold in the standings, they would not catch it.

Those Pesky 5 Games

So, here we are.  Forty-five games to go and we are still 5 games under .500.  It's like a dieter who complains about those 5 pounds that just won't seem to go away.  Last week, I mocked the New York Times for saying that the Mets were creeping towards .500 when they reached the lofty perch of 4 games under. At the time, they had played the 11 games since the All Star break at a 6-5 pace.  They proceeded to play the next 11 at 5-6.

I still thought that the Met's achieve that Monument to Mediocrity.  25-20 doesn't sound like too lofty a goal.  However, that translates to a winning percentage of .556 (actually .5555555 continuous 5's as far as the eye can see and then some).  That also doesn't sound too hard.  However, the East leading National's winning percentage is currently only .544.

That being said, if the Met's win 6 games during any stretch of 7 the rest of the way, then they only need to play .500 ball for the other games.  That really is one way to make it sound doable.  I will make 1 promise.  Unless there is a rain out, the Mets will NOT finish 5 games under .500.  There are no ties in baseball and 2x + 5 cannot total 162.

The Final 54

There is an old adage in baseball that everybody wins 54 games, everybody loses 54 games and what you do with that other 54 matters.  Well the Mets have lost their 54 (actually 56), but have not yet won their 54 (they're at 52).  Looking at the final 54, the Mets need to win at a .537 (29-25) clip to hit the .500 mark.  The division leading Nationals haven't posted a much higher win percentage than that, but looking at the last 40 games, the Mets can hit the mark.

As for the playoffs, well the Mets can reserve tee times now.  There are 9 teams ahead of them in the standings.  If this were basketball or hockey, maybe they'd have a chance.  Another thing to consider is that their two best starting pitchers of late, deGrom and Wheeler have innings limits.  Are you going to risk their futures for a shot at a .500 record?  Me neither.

This team is playing well and they deserve to draw a crowd for their remaining games.  If there is any question, the Sandy (Alderson) and Terry (Collins) show should be renewed.  As one of my favorite banners on "Banner Day at Shea" once noted, "It's too cold in October anyway!"