Psychologically Eliminated

The Medical Examiner will put the time of death officially at the 7th inning August 13, 2014.  The murder weapon was a fork, stuck into the Mets playoff hopes.  Forensic analysis confirmed multiple prints belonging to the Nationals who took possession of the Mets from the Braves who are losing their grip on everything these days.

I foolishly held out hope that the Mets might find a way to rally last night.  My first instinct was to post during the 7th inning stretch.  Statisticians and devout fans will tell you that it ain't over till it's over.  Well, even Yogi would call this one over.  There might be some sound and fury over the final 40 games, but it will signify nothing.

Right before the All Star Break, the Mets had a great Comeback win against the Braves.  It was a game they used to lose.  They still lose them only now they lose them to the Nats.  And when the Nats stuck that fork in them last night, it went right through the heart.  Until then, there were things to hope for.

The Mets will not catch the Nats for the East title.  They will not catch the wild card teams.  They will not even catch a .500 record.  If they were trailing a cold in the standings, they would not catch it.

Those Pesky 5 Games

So, here we are.  Forty-five games to go and we are still 5 games under .500.  It's like a dieter who complains about those 5 pounds that just won't seem to go away.  Last week, I mocked the New York Times for saying that the Mets were creeping towards .500 when they reached the lofty perch of 4 games under. At the time, they had played the 11 games since the All Star break at a 6-5 pace.  They proceeded to play the next 11 at 5-6.

I still thought that the Met's achieve that Monument to Mediocrity.  25-20 doesn't sound like too lofty a goal.  However, that translates to a winning percentage of .556 (actually .5555555 continuous 5's as far as the eye can see and then some).  That also doesn't sound too hard.  However, the East leading National's winning percentage is currently only .544.

That being said, if the Met's win 6 games during any stretch of 7 the rest of the way, then they only need to play .500 ball for the other games.  That really is one way to make it sound doable.  I will make 1 promise.  Unless there is a rain out, the Mets will NOT finish 5 games under .500.  There are no ties in baseball and 2x + 5 cannot total 162.

The Final 54

There is an old adage in baseball that everybody wins 54 games, everybody loses 54 games and what you do with that other 54 matters.  Well the Mets have lost their 54 (actually 56), but have not yet won their 54 (they're at 52).  Looking at the final 54, the Mets need to win at a .537 (29-25) clip to hit the .500 mark.  The division leading Nationals haven't posted a much higher win percentage than that, but looking at the last 40 games, the Mets can hit the mark.

As for the playoffs, well the Mets can reserve tee times now.  There are 9 teams ahead of them in the standings.  If this were basketball or hockey, maybe they'd have a chance.  Another thing to consider is that their two best starting pitchers of late, deGrom and Wheeler have innings limits.  Are you going to risk their futures for a shot at a .500 record?  Me neither.

This team is playing well and they deserve to draw a crowd for their remaining games.  If there is any question, the Sandy (Alderson) and Terry (Collins) show should be renewed.  As one of my favorite banners on "Banner Day at Shea" once noted, "It's too cold in October anyway!"

Reading the Paper Can Make You Crazy

As the non-waiver trade deadline approaches, teams are usually divided into buyers and sellers.  The sellers have decided to write off the rest of the year and improve the clubs future, while the buyers are either playoff bound or reasonably on the bubble.  The Mets seem to be in limbo this year.  They are not likely to make the playoffs, but the veteran who could make the biggest impact this year (Colon) is carrying 41 years and another year with a contract larger than his substantial waistline.  As such, it appears that the Mets will not be making any moves.

Here's what drives me crazy.  In the New York Times, the headline to their story about how the Mets are standing pat begins, "Creeping Up on .500"  Really?  The Mets are creeping up on .500?  Is that the story you want to go with?  Let's take a look.  Okay, granted, I am writing after the loss to the Phillies, but still.  The Mets entered the All-Star Break 5 games below .500.  The Mets returned home from a 10 game road trip 5 games below .500.  Yesterday, the Mets climbed all the way up to 4 games below .500 and today, they gave that monumental gain back.  Is tomorrow's story going to be Mets sliding back toward .400?

Statistically speaking, the longer you play .500 ball, the closer your win percentage will get to .500.  However, whether you are 5 games below .500 after 50 games or 100 games, you are no closer to .500.  If anything, you are actually farther away.  There are fewer games to play, which means your winning percentage over the remaining games must be greater than before to make up that 5 game deficit.

Another Big Win

Last night's come back win against the Milwaukee Brewers goes in the books alongside the extra-inning win over the Braves and the come from 2 down twice win over the Marlins.  Already, the narrative for the Mets has been that they lost their offense on the flight to San Diego, and the airline has yet to locate it.  I was tempted to discount the value of this ninth inning rally because it was accomplished off of Francisco Rodriguez, but it was another opportunity for the Mets to learn that they are almost never out of the game.

One thing about the broadcast.  The announcers kept mentioning how "consistent" Zach Wheeler has been over his last four outings.  They kept using this word.  I do not think it means what they think it means.  Granted, Wheeler has been on a good stretch.  Five outings, now, and six of his last seven.  Niese's stretch of 20 starts giving up 3 runs or fewer- that's consistency.  Five is just a hot streak.

The Mets are now 4-4 on this road trip, and 3-2 against teams making plans for the playoffs.  The team now has a rather solid pitching staff, including the bullpen, set-up man, and closer.  They seem set at first, second, third base, catcher, center and right field. There's a lot to like about this team.

Newton's First Law

Isaac Newton's first law of motion says that a body in motion continues to stay in motion until acted upon my something.  Likewise, it says that a body at rest stays at rest.  Ten days ago, the Mets were in motion.  They had won 8 of there last 10 games, and had climbed into third in the National League East.  Then they were acted upon by the All-Star Break.

Perhaps the most dramatic illustration of the ASB effect (Trademark pending), is on the offense.  The Mets, who would probably still be represented in a Home Run Derby by Dave Kingman, had led the league in home runs for nearly a month leading up to the break.  Since then, it took nearly 5 games and over 230 plate appearances (thank you broadcast team at SNY) before Lucas Duda gave the Mets a little insurance in Seattle last night.  True, d'Arnaud cleared the wall the night before, but Seattle brought that ball back before it could land.

The Major papers will tell you how the Mets seem to approach the break as if it were a brick wall made of Kryptonite.  Maybe it is, but the Mets aren't superman and should not be affected by its radiation.  Despite the cynical tone to my writing, I am an optimist.  Yesterday at this time, the Mets had lost 3 of 4.  Today they are 2-3 on a grueling west coast trip.

I'm reminded that an optimist sees the glass as half-full, the pessimist as half-empty, and the engineer sees the glass as twice as big as needed.  Let's go Mets.

Scheduling problems

I'm not a big fan of the all-star break anymore.  I'm glad that Daniel Murphy made the team.  It was a great way for Derek Jeter to take a curtain call for all of baseball as he has been great for the game- scandal free, all class, his career is a throwback to the Yankee classics.  The home run derby bores me.  I'm a Mets' fan what do I know from Home runs?

I want to see baseball.  There was no Met's game on Monday, an all-star game on Tuesday, no game on Wednesday, did anyone play on Thursday?  My Mets did not.  Here it is, Friday, I'm jonesing for some baseball and where are the Mets?  The way the heck out in San Diego!  First pitch 10 pm!  What's that about?  Here's a tip MLB- NEVER as in NOT EVER- have a team return from the all-star game in a different time zone if it can be avoided, if not, keep it within an hour.  While I'm on the subject, this applies doubly to the beginning of the season.  Also, if the Toronto Blue Jays have a home game on July 4th, somebody needs to be shot.  Nothing against Toronto, but a US team will be an away team not shooting fireworks.

I used to like the fact that the Reds always had the first game of the season on some opening Monday.  You want to create an event out of opening night on Sunday with only 1 game, fine.  However you dilute the special opening when you have a series several days before that on one of the four continents that don't already revere baseball.  Trust me, penguins won't be fielding a team anytime soon.

I have a couple of suggestions for football, too.  The first two weeks of the regular season should NOT be against division opponents.  They count, but you get 2 weeks at full speed before facing rivals.  You face the other 3 teams only once each by your eighth game.  The last 2 weeks are against division rivals with last year's 1 vs 2 the final week.  It would also be a good idea to give the four teams in a division the same bye week and have them face each other coming off it.

15 Pitches

Since nothing is going to go on with the Amazin's till Friday, I thought I would post this about evaluating  pitching.  Baseball statisticians will tell you that a quality start means going at least 6 innings giving up 3 runs or fewer.  However, 3 runs in 6 innings is a 4.50 ERA and I don't think that's very good.  Granted, if you leave the game after 6 and you've only given up 3 runs, the odds are that your team is still in a position to win.

I use my own metric to determine how a pitcher is doing.  As the headline suggests, it has to do with 15 pitches.  If you are averaging 15 pitches or less an inning, you are probably pitching well.  Unless you've got a WHIP (Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched) below 0.5, and you don't, the odds are you are averaging 4 batters or more in an inning which gives you fewer that 4 pitches per batter.  Since it takes 4 pitches to walk someone, you are, by definition, throwing strikes.

15 pitches times 7 innings is 105 pitches.  This means you are going an inning deeper than a "quality start."  I once heard it said, and I think it was the late Frank Cashen, that if your middle relievers are struggling, the problem is your starting pitching.  Well, if you go 7, your middle relievers get to relax.  Like golf, go long enough from the tee, and all you need is your wedge (set-up man) and your putter (closer).

All-Star Break

So we made it to the break!  Let's take a look at where the Mets are.  The stats are simple.  The record is 45-50.  We're in 3rd place in the East 7 games back.  You might think that if you look up "mediocre" in the dictionary, you would find the Mets logo.  I don't think so.

Facing facts, I feel comfortable saying that General Manager Sandy Alderson's pre-season goal of 90 wins is not going to happen.  That would require a 45-22 record the rest of the way, winning at a .672 clip.  Personally, I said at the start that a .500 record would be respectable.  Considering the fact that they have played the past month 16-13, I think they could even end up above the water line.

Following the Mets has been a lot like watching a YoYo.  However, there is recent reason for optimism.  I posted about the good win against the Braves on Monday.  It was a good sign that after losing a lead they held into the eighth inning, they came back to tie it up an eventually win in bonus time.  They had a similar win on Saturday against the Marlins.  In this case, they had not been able to touch the Marlins pitcher, Tom Koehler, for the first 4 innings dropping behind 2-0.  After tying the score in the bottom of the 5th, they immediately gave 2 runs back in the top of the 6th.

When they came back to win that game, it was like the scene in "The Matrix" where "Neo" takes on "Agent Smith" on the subway platform.  His crewmates are watching the fight and wondering what he is doing.  "Morpheus" replies, "He's starting to believe."  It really looks like that is what is happening to the Mets right now.  They are learning how to win.  They are starting to believe.  And what could be more appropriate for this organization?

A Good Win

10 games out, 10 games south of the border, the Mets needed a win last night against the 1st place Braves.  If they lose this series it may be time to break out the golf clubs.

Daisuke Matsuzaka worked out of jams in nearly all 7 of his scoreless innings.  Offensively, to put it kindly, the Mets were efficient.  Through 7 innings we had 2 runs on 2 hits- and RBI double by Travis d'Arnaud and a solo shot by David Wright had the Mets up 2-0.  Then the eighth inning came and the bullpen came and 3 pitchers later it was Atalanta 3 New York 2.  Despite the presence of Wilpon's signature on the checks, the Braves own the Mets.

But in the bottom of the inning, Curtis Granderson sent a shot deep to right to tie it up.  That homer gave the team hope, and with a little help from the umpires, they almost won in regulation.  Since this game is baseball and not horeshoes, almost doesn't count.  So the fans were treated to a little bonus baseball- no extra charge.  Two innings later, Juan Lagares legged out a one out double.  He took third on a deep fly by d'Arnaud which had followed an intentional walk to Lucas Duda.

Ruben Tejada, who had the game winning hit the last time the Mets had a walk-off win came to the plate and replicated the feat.  This team is going to drive me to drink.

A Good Week

So the team drops in for two games against the Oakland A's before heading out on the road again in what has got to be the strangest homestand.  We had a good week on the road going 4-3 against the Cardinals and division rival Marlins.  I almost had to bring out the save some runs for tomorrow chant on Sunday, when the team had a 7-0 lead, and then when it got to 11-3, but an 11 run output is hardly excessive when you give up 5.

Here's where we stand.  It is late June, and we are 6 games under .500, 5 1/2 games out of first.  These numbers are not insurmountable.  This could be one of those "Does anybody want to win" type seasons.  Bill Maher was on The Daily Show last night, and Jon Stewart, a fan, asked Maher, a minority owner, if he would bring a "jar of tears" to an owners meeting- good stuff!

Tonight's mathup pits Bartolo Colon, late of the A's against Scott Kazmir, who apparently holds a grudge against us for shipping him to Tampa Bay.  We also get the return of catcher Travis d'Arnaud who found his swing in Las Vegas.  Let us hope that that is not one of the things that stays in Vegas.

Gem

Zack Wheeler just raised the expectations on his career.  In tonight's 3 hit shutout over the Marlins, he faced 1 more batter than the minimum for a 9 inning game.  In his 1 year and 1 day major league career, he had never gone farther than 7 innings.  Not only did he pitch so well, he did it under pressure.  The Mets offense, and notice, there is no "O" in M-E-T-S, gave him only the one run required to take a lead.  I have occasionally criticized the Mets for scoring more runs than necessary, but this is hardly what I meant.

I have been defending this Mets team as being better than their record, although it has been getting harder to do.  At some point, as Bill Parcells says, you ARE your record.  We're not quite there yet.  Talk to me at the All-Star Break.

No further comment tonight- just let the memory of Wheeler's performance linger.

Moral Victories

The Mets just finished a tough series against the Brewers losing 2 of 3 to the Central Division leaders.  The record may not show it, but this team is getting better.  Late in the game, they got a bunch of baserunners, they just couldn't get them home.  Eventually the Mets are going to break through.  Though, it is important not to use too many runs in a given game.

I know that moral victories don't count in the standings, but they're all I've got at this point, so I'll take it.

The Sky is Falling!

Okay, so the Mets have dropped the last two to the Cubs.  They left a ton of men on base.  I mentioned the problem in my last post.  The 11 runs they scored against the Phillies on Monday was excessive.  5 would have been plenty.  They use the extra 6 runs the last two nights and they win those games.

As I said in 2012, check back in 3 years.  Sandy Alderson has the team going in the right direction.  However, the road is under construction and we're going to hit a lot of potholes along the way.

What a Difference a Week Makes!

Last Monday was Memorial Day, and the Mets had found yet another way to blow a game.  Jose Valverde was not even allowed to return to the clubhouse- he would leave through the fan gates, the Mets forwarding his luggage, and the hitting coach, Dave Hudgens, getting fired.  Most fans felt that Valverde had overstayed his welcome long ago (which is tough to do in May).  As for Hudgens, my problem with him was his comments about booing.

At the time, I was bothered by the New York Times essentially writing the team off.  They were only 6 games under .500, and one good stretch could easily cure that.  Well, one week later, having gone 6 of 7, suddenly they are 1 game under, and 4 out of 1st place.  They are scoring runs.  I thought they scored a few too many (11) last night.  They may need those runs later in the week.

They have good starting pitching Colon, Wheeler, Niese, de Grom.  Matsuzaka has pitched well in every role.  The bullpen seems to be filled with Garanimals- just mix and match.  I seem to recall the Mets originally projected Mejia as a future closer, and he's off to a good start in that role.

Keep your eyes crossed!  Um, er, better make that your fingers.  You're going to want to watch this summer!

Boo Hudgens!

So, on Monday, after another disastrous loss.  The Mets released losing pitcher Jose Valverde and Hitting coach Dave Hudgens.  Much of the talk about Valverde centered on why it took so long to pull the plug.  I was not going to talk about Hudgens.  In my last post, I had mentioned that the Mets hitting was actually getting better.

Hudgens got to me when he mentioned the "booing" of the fans.  My snark reaction was that he was fired because Ike Davis is now batting .295 with Pittsburgh, and it looked like a rebuke of Hudgens.  I didn't really believe that.  Here is the thing about that booing.  If these players aren't hitting because they are getting booed, then why weren't they hitting when they weren't getting booed?

Granderson and Chris Young were good signings this off-season.  Most fans were excited about this team.  I don't know how many bought into Sandy Alderson's goal of 90 wins, but they should be competitive.  So we did not boo Grandy or C.Y. to start the year.  It was only after they had gone several weeks hitting around the .200 mark that the Boo Birds appeared.  Birds fly south for the winter and never return before May.

It's not as bad as it looks

Okay, so today's loss makes our performance in the opener yesterday look competent.  Yes, we're losing games at home to losing teams.  However, things could be worse.  A few weeks ago, a story in the New York Times remarked that we were on pace to win 91 games, and just the other day, that same paper said we were headed for another losing season.

There really is good news.  Our starting pitching has been very good.  We've been hitting more of late.  While it is true that we've left a ton of players on base lately, you can't do that unless you are getting on base in the first place.  Five double plays in a 9 inning game may have tied a record, but that proves it's an aberration.  You need to have hitting before you get clutch hitting.

It may look ugly right now, but I have a feeling we'll be seeing a swan emerge.