90% of success

I'm sure I got the number wrong, but I believe it was Woody Allen who talked about success being related to showing up.  Among the pitchers who've shown up are Bobby Parnell and Matt Harvey.  Harvey returns from Tommy John surgery which is now so common that returning is unremarkable, but we Bereavers will not get overconfident.  Parnell can pitch with no pressure as Jennry Mejia is penciled in at closer.

I am going to try to post more often this season.  Especially once the regular season begins.  I said that the Mets' slogan in 2012 was "Met's 2012: Check back in 3 years!"  It has now been 3 years.

Let's Go Met's!

Anticipation

When you consider the fact that the last time the football team I grew up with made it to the Super Bowl, we still did not know that the moon was not made of cheese, the end of football has always meant "2 weeks till pitchers and catchers" to me.

Many of my friends think that my disparaging remarks about the Amazins' chances in past years meant that I did not like them.  Nothing could be further from the truth!  I'm a big fan!  So, where do we stand?

We played the last 3months of the season with a record that was 2 games over .500.  The pitching staff is about to welcome back a young generational ace in Matt Harvey.  I am not going to tempt fate with the baseball gods by making any predictions, but I do believe that October baseball in Queens is not unreasonable.

Next post when camp opens- enjoy the commercials, um er, I mean the Super Bowl!

Psychologically Eliminated

The Medical Examiner will put the time of death officially at the 7th inning August 13, 2014.  The murder weapon was a fork, stuck into the Mets playoff hopes.  Forensic analysis confirmed multiple prints belonging to the Nationals who took possession of the Mets from the Braves who are losing their grip on everything these days.

I foolishly held out hope that the Mets might find a way to rally last night.  My first instinct was to post during the 7th inning stretch.  Statisticians and devout fans will tell you that it ain't over till it's over.  Well, even Yogi would call this one over.  There might be some sound and fury over the final 40 games, but it will signify nothing.

Right before the All Star Break, the Mets had a great Comeback win against the Braves.  It was a game they used to lose.  They still lose them only now they lose them to the Nats.  And when the Nats stuck that fork in them last night, it went right through the heart.  Until then, there were things to hope for.

The Mets will not catch the Nats for the East title.  They will not catch the wild card teams.  They will not even catch a .500 record.  If they were trailing a cold in the standings, they would not catch it.

Those Pesky 5 Games

So, here we are.  Forty-five games to go and we are still 5 games under .500.  It's like a dieter who complains about those 5 pounds that just won't seem to go away.  Last week, I mocked the New York Times for saying that the Mets were creeping towards .500 when they reached the lofty perch of 4 games under. At the time, they had played the 11 games since the All Star break at a 6-5 pace.  They proceeded to play the next 11 at 5-6.

I still thought that the Met's achieve that Monument to Mediocrity.  25-20 doesn't sound like too lofty a goal.  However, that translates to a winning percentage of .556 (actually .5555555 continuous 5's as far as the eye can see and then some).  That also doesn't sound too hard.  However, the East leading National's winning percentage is currently only .544.

That being said, if the Met's win 6 games during any stretch of 7 the rest of the way, then they only need to play .500 ball for the other games.  That really is one way to make it sound doable.  I will make 1 promise.  Unless there is a rain out, the Mets will NOT finish 5 games under .500.  There are no ties in baseball and 2x + 5 cannot total 162.

The Final 54

There is an old adage in baseball that everybody wins 54 games, everybody loses 54 games and what you do with that other 54 matters.  Well the Mets have lost their 54 (actually 56), but have not yet won their 54 (they're at 52).  Looking at the final 54, the Mets need to win at a .537 (29-25) clip to hit the .500 mark.  The division leading Nationals haven't posted a much higher win percentage than that, but looking at the last 40 games, the Mets can hit the mark.

As for the playoffs, well the Mets can reserve tee times now.  There are 9 teams ahead of them in the standings.  If this were basketball or hockey, maybe they'd have a chance.  Another thing to consider is that their two best starting pitchers of late, deGrom and Wheeler have innings limits.  Are you going to risk their futures for a shot at a .500 record?  Me neither.

This team is playing well and they deserve to draw a crowd for their remaining games.  If there is any question, the Sandy (Alderson) and Terry (Collins) show should be renewed.  As one of my favorite banners on "Banner Day at Shea" once noted, "It's too cold in October anyway!"

Reading the Paper Can Make You Crazy

As the non-waiver trade deadline approaches, teams are usually divided into buyers and sellers.  The sellers have decided to write off the rest of the year and improve the clubs future, while the buyers are either playoff bound or reasonably on the bubble.  The Mets seem to be in limbo this year.  They are not likely to make the playoffs, but the veteran who could make the biggest impact this year (Colon) is carrying 41 years and another year with a contract larger than his substantial waistline.  As such, it appears that the Mets will not be making any moves.

Here's what drives me crazy.  In the New York Times, the headline to their story about how the Mets are standing pat begins, "Creeping Up on .500"  Really?  The Mets are creeping up on .500?  Is that the story you want to go with?  Let's take a look.  Okay, granted, I am writing after the loss to the Phillies, but still.  The Mets entered the All-Star Break 5 games below .500.  The Mets returned home from a 10 game road trip 5 games below .500.  Yesterday, the Mets climbed all the way up to 4 games below .500 and today, they gave that monumental gain back.  Is tomorrow's story going to be Mets sliding back toward .400?

Statistically speaking, the longer you play .500 ball, the closer your win percentage will get to .500.  However, whether you are 5 games below .500 after 50 games or 100 games, you are no closer to .500.  If anything, you are actually farther away.  There are fewer games to play, which means your winning percentage over the remaining games must be greater than before to make up that 5 game deficit.

Another Big Win

Last night's come back win against the Milwaukee Brewers goes in the books alongside the extra-inning win over the Braves and the come from 2 down twice win over the Marlins.  Already, the narrative for the Mets has been that they lost their offense on the flight to San Diego, and the airline has yet to locate it.  I was tempted to discount the value of this ninth inning rally because it was accomplished off of Francisco Rodriguez, but it was another opportunity for the Mets to learn that they are almost never out of the game.

One thing about the broadcast.  The announcers kept mentioning how "consistent" Zach Wheeler has been over his last four outings.  They kept using this word.  I do not think it means what they think it means.  Granted, Wheeler has been on a good stretch.  Five outings, now, and six of his last seven.  Niese's stretch of 20 starts giving up 3 runs or fewer- that's consistency.  Five is just a hot streak.

The Mets are now 4-4 on this road trip, and 3-2 against teams making plans for the playoffs.  The team now has a rather solid pitching staff, including the bullpen, set-up man, and closer.  They seem set at first, second, third base, catcher, center and right field. There's a lot to like about this team.