As the non-waiver trade deadline approaches, teams are usually divided into buyers and sellers. The sellers have decided to write off the rest of the year and improve the clubs future, while the buyers are either playoff bound or reasonably on the bubble. The Mets seem to be in limbo this year. They are not likely to make the playoffs, but the veteran who could make the biggest impact this year (Colon) is carrying 41 years and another year with a contract larger than his substantial waistline. As such, it appears that the Mets will not be making any moves.
Here's what drives me crazy. In the New York Times, the headline to their story about how the Mets are standing pat begins, "Creeping Up on .500" Really? The Mets are creeping up on .500? Is that the story you want to go with? Let's take a look. Okay, granted, I am writing after the loss to the Phillies, but still. The Mets entered the All-Star Break 5 games below .500. The Mets returned home from a 10 game road trip 5 games below .500. Yesterday, the Mets climbed all the way up to 4 games below .500 and today, they gave that monumental gain back. Is tomorrow's story going to be Mets sliding back toward .400?
Statistically speaking, the longer you play .500 ball, the closer your win percentage will get to .500. However, whether you are 5 games below .500 after 50 games or 100 games, you are no closer to .500. If anything, you are actually farther away. There are fewer games to play, which means your winning percentage over the remaining games must be greater than before to make up that 5 game deficit.
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